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Every 10 years, the U.S. Census Bureau conducts a count of every person living in the United States -- the U.S. Constitution requires this. The idea of the founders was to count every person and then use that count to allocate seats in the U.S. House of Representatives to each state. This was a radical idea because until then population counts had been used by governments to collect taxes and press people into the military. This radical plan also had injustice embedded -- slaves were counted as three-fifths of a person. That changed after the 14th Amendment was ratified at the end of the civil war.
So, what was the population of the U.S. in 2010?
The population of the U.S. in 2010 was 308,745,538:
· That was a growth of 9.7% since the last census in 2000 -- 2nd slowest growth in 100 years
· Only state to lose population was Michigan -- a loss of 0.6%
· State with the highest population growth was Nevada -- Nevada grew at 35.1%
· North-East had the slowest population growth at 3.2% and the South had the highest at 14.3%, followed by the West at 13.8%
So, how will U.S. House of Representatives seats be reallocated using these counts?
12 seats in the U.S. House of representatives will change hands -- 18 states will be affected by this:
Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Iowa will lose one seat each. New York and Ohio will lose two seats each.
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will gain one seat each. Florida will gain 2 seats. Texas will gain 4 seats.
So, what does this mean to African-American and urban communities?
For many decades now, the population has been shifting from the North-East and the Mid-West to the West and the South.
The North-East and the Mid-West which are losing population have large African-American populations centered in large urban areas. In the South and the West which are gaining population, the African-American population is less centered in large urban areas. This has huge implications:
High among these is the allocation of Federal funds based on population counts. The shift in population means lower shares of Federal funds will be available for the North-East and the Mid-West and greater shares will be available for the South and the West.
Once that funding is re-allocated, it is state government policies that distribute funds between competing needs -- they decide who gains and who loses. For example, just because the population has grown in urban areas in the South (say, in Dallas, Houston or Austin in TX) does not mean that funds will be allocated to those urban areas.
All states that will lose U.S. House of Representative seats except Iowa have significant African-American populations centered in urban areas -- every one of these states except Iowa and Massachusetts have at least 10% of the population that is African American. Some of the states that will gain seats have large African-American populations but others have very small African American populations – in most of these states, the African-American population is less centered in urban areas. Many of the states that are gaining seats tend to lean towards Republican candidates in Presidential and Congressional elections. This has huge implications:
U.S. Census Bureau has not yet released data on where the population decline within these states has occurred – that will happen from about mid-February, 2011. Past surveys indicate that population loss may have occurred in both urban areas and rural areas -- Chicago is perhaps one urban area where the population may have grown.
During redistricting, African-American held seats in urban areas may be at risk -- this would happen if the lost seats are removed from urban areas so that the African-American majority in those seats is diluted. In the states where seats are gained, there is a risk that states will redistrict the new seats to seats where African-Americans are not a majority.
This means that communities must be empowered to ensure that funds and redistricting occurs in a manner that is just, fair and equitable.
